Watchlist 02/03
Trump's tariff tantrum
Market
SPY 0.00%↑ strong rebound last week and was on track to make a new all time high close on Friday, until late afternoon tariff news reversed the market to close at lows. Over the weekend Canada said it would retaliate with 25% tariffs, and Mexico is also considering similar actions. Coupled with many of the largest tech stocks having negative earnings reactions and looking weak, it seems like a mixed environment with higher volatility. Although there are some notable sectors like financials, fintech, payments, cybersecurity and crypto that have are holding up well.
NVDA 0.00%↑ after a major gap down last Monday over DeepSeek fears, it’s been unable to bounce and traded sideways this past week. The $130 level acted as support in the last few months but looks to be acting as resistance now. There is also a significant break under the 200 moving average, which it has not closed under in over 2 years, last time being January 2023. Expecting more downside if we break last weeks low.
MSTR 0.00%↑ has been acting weaker than $BTC lately. Last week it announced pricing of Strike Preferred Stock Offering (STRK), raising $563M to buy more Bitcoin. If market and crypto continues to act weak could see this trade lower as risk sentiment overall decreases as well as increased dilution in the stock.
ELF 0.00%↑ Elf topped out mid last year and has since entered a stage 4 decline. Given it imports many products/materials from China, it is expected to suffer from Trumps new tariff policies. Weekly chart shows a head and shoulder pattern with a clear breakdown of the $100 level.
SMCI 0.00%↑ one of the weaker names in the AI / datacenter theme, broke and retested the $30 level last week, reporting earnings on Tuesday.
DXYZ 0.00%↑ closing under the 50 moving average. Fundamentally has been trading with an extremely high premium to NAV for a while now. As technical momentum starts to wane, price could start to fall back to more realistic levels.
Quantum
QTUM 0.00%↑ using the ETF as a gauge for sector momentum, since the drop a month ago has been in a range making higher lows and lower highs. Rejected the gap $84 area on Friday and a break of recent lows of $80 should signal a downtrend in the sector.
RGTI 0.00%↑ each backside rally has closed weak, with the rally on Friday rejecting $14 area of resistance now. The breakdown of $12 support area should lead to a move back down to $10.
QBTS 0.00%↑ similar look, $6 has been acting as resistance, break of $5.20 area should lead to a move down to $4.
The less watched quantum names are acting weaker and already in downtrends QUBT 0.00%↑ LAES 0.00%↑ ARQQ 0.00%↑ QMCO 0.00%↑.
Pockets of strength
TEM 0.00%↑ one of Nancy Pelosi’s recent investment disclosures. An AI healthcare company, “Tempus works with genetic data, clinical records, and other patient information to give insights that can improve outcomes by matching patients with the most effective therapies based on their specific medical profile.”.
GRAL 0.00%↑ another healthcare company that focuses on early cancer detection, seems to have moved in sympathy with TEM 0.00%↑.
BABA 0.00%↑ made a strong move after news last week that “Alibaba Qwen2.5-Max MoE LLM outcompetes DeepSeek V3 in benchmarks like Arena Hard, LiveBench, LiveCodeBench and GPQA-Diamond". As AI from China becomes more competitive investors may seek to increase exposure and BABA 0.00%↑ could be an easy stock to buy for this.
CRWD 0.00%↑ strong breakout from the software rotation that was evident at the start of the week. Consolidating with little retracement in a strong sector.
GOOGL 0.00%↑ notable close at all time highs during market pressure. Not particularly actionable, reporting earnings on Tuesday, one to watch.
OKLO 0.00%↑ recovered entire of the DeepSeek capex fear gapdown and briefly made new highs. Strongest stock in the nuclear theme currently.
LTBR 0.00%↑ another nuclear theme stock, pushing against $10 level again.
ACN 0.00%↑ Accenture closing at a 52 week high with a cup and handle type look over the last few years. Bull thesis is that as the costs for AI decrease, businesses that want to use AI will hire consultancy firms such as Accenture to help them implement into their processes.
Good list, thanks!🎯